Recap #
In last week’s playbook, I again didn’t include a take-profit in the plan. If I had followed the 2:1 convention, I would have made 2% on the trade. However, given the market conditions, where RB2701 seemed to be rising steadily, I don’t think it’s time to exit.
Observations #
This week the overall market was bullish. For macro, TL2609 went up 0.58% this week (forgive me for not converting to basis points); for grains and animal products, C2611 went down 0.22%, and LH2611 went up 2.33%; for infrastructure and real estate, RB2610 went up 0.10%, FG609 made a lower low but remained at roughly the same level as last week.
JM2701’s rally continued. However, it cannot rise forever. This is the biggest threat to the long RB2701 position, as its pullback will definitely hurt RB2701.
The dominant contract for corn futures has rolled from C2609 to C2611. It was very quiet last week, but I noticed that some large institutions are building positions: CITIC Futures and Yongan Futures are the largest bulls in C2611, and COFCO Futures is the largest bull in C2701. There aren’t many recognized bears though. I’m curious to see what happens next.
Plan #
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